A Physically Based Modeling Framework For Analyzing The Effects Of Climate Change And Land-Cover Disturbance On Suspended Sediment Transport In The Colorado Front Range
Stewart, Jenna 1 ; Livneh, Ben 2
1 University of Colorado, Boulder and CIRES
2 University of Colorado, Boulder and CIRES
Temperatures in Colorado are projected to rise by between +2.5?F and +5?F by 2050, increasing the severity of droughts, heat waves, and wildfire vulnerability. These changes present new uncertainties into the rates of soil erosion and sedimentation throughout the state. Soil erosion adds constituents to streams, altering water chemistry and streambed morphology, which can adversely affect aquatic life, water treatment, and infrastructure. Managing the effects of climate change and land-cover disturbance on water resources poses a critical challenge. The primary goal of this research is to develop a catchment response model, capable of relating weather and climate inputs to streamflow and sediment transport in the Colorado Front Range. As sedimentation rates are impacted by numerous physical processes including soil type, slope and climate, eight empirical, conceptual and physical models will be explored in an attempt to quantify uncertainty and improve predictability. A broader inquiry made here is into the efficacy of empirical, stochastic, or physically based sediment-modeling approaches under different conditions. The empirical methods to be explored include: a monovariate rating curve, a multivariate rating curve, and the USLE. Conceptual models will also be explored including: SWAT and HEC-RAS, while physically-based models identified include: WEPP, KINEROS2 and DHSVM. Here we couple the different soil loss and sediment transport equations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model as a framework.